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The Research 2000 Frontline Poll was conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America from January 23 through January 24.
A total of 2000 likely voters in swing freshman Democratic districts were interviewed by telephone, with a margin of error of 2%. 200 likely voters were selected from each of ten key districts (see below), district numbers have a margin of error of 6.9%.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The districts surveyed:
| PVI | Vote on HC Bill |
|---|
| Betsy Markey (CO-4) | D-5.68 | NO |
|---|
| Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) | D-4.33 | NO |
|---|
| Mark Schauer (MI-7) | D-2.29 | YES |
|---|
| Larry Kissell (NC-8) | D-2.10 | NO |
|---|
| Martin Heinrich (NM-1) | D+4.72 | YES |
|---|
| Harry Teague (NM-2) | D-5.74 | NO |
|---|
| Steve Driehaus (OH-1) | D+1.07 | YES |
|---|
| Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15) | D+0.94 | YES |
|---|
| John Boccieri (OH-16) | D-3.93 | NO |
|---|
| Tom Perriello (VA-5) | D-5.10 | YES |
|---|
The average PVI was D-2.24. (PVI is Partisan Voting Index, a measure of how Democratic a district is.)
(Research 2000 also
does polling for the St.
Louis Post-Dispatch, Lexington
Herald-Leader, Fort
Wayne News Sentinel, South
Bend Tribune, and Reno
Gazette-Journal, and dozens of other media outlets.
FRESHMAN DEMOCRATS FACE TROUBLE IN 2010 IF CONGRESS DOESN'T PASS A PUBLIC OPTION
Polls in 10 frontline freshman districts show:
- 68% of voters want a public health insurance option
- By 5 to 1, voters want their Representative to fight to add the public option over simply passing the Senate bill
- By 3 to 1, persuadable voters are less likely to vote for local Democrat if Congress doesn't pass a public option as part of reform
- 55% say Democrats need to do more to fight big corporations
- 56% say Democrats haven't done enough to fulfill Obama's 2008 campaign promises
- 52% of Democrats less likely to vote in 2010 if Congress doesn't pass public option -- Republicans more likely
RESULTS
| QUESTION: Are Democrats in Washington more on the side of the lobbyists and special interests or on the side of people like you?
|
| | LOBBYISTS | YOU | NOT SURE |
| OVERALL |
44% |
31% |
25% |
| DEMOCRATS |
32% | 53% | 15% |
| REPUBLICANS |
45% | 12% | 43% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
51% | 30% | 19% |
| CO-04 (Markey) |
45% |
33% |
22%
|
| FL-24 (Kosmas) |
45% |
29% |
26%
|
| MI-07 (Schauer) |
42% |
32% |
26% |
| NC-08 (Kissell) |
40% |
33% |
27% |
| NM-01 (Heinrich) |
41% |
35% |
24% |
| NM-02 (Teague) |
44% |
31% |
25% |
| OH-01 (Driehaus) |
44% |
27% |
29% |
| OH-15 (Kilroy) |
46% |
29% |
25% |
| OH-16 (Boccieri) |
47% |
30% |
23% |
| VA-05 (Perriello) |
44% |
34% |
22% |
| QUESTION: Are Democrats in Washington doing too much to fight corporate America or should they do more to fight big corporations?
|
| | DO MORE | TOO MUCH | NOT SURE |
| OVERALL |
55% |
31% |
14% |
| DEMOCRATS |
65% | 23% | 12% |
| REPUBLICANS |
43% | 40% | 17% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
58% | 30% | 12%
|
| CO-04 (Markey) |
57% |
31% |
12% |
| FL-24 (Kosmas) |
51% |
35% |
14% |
| MI-07 (Schauer) |
57% |
27% |
16% |
| NC-08 (Kissell) |
59% |
26% |
15% |
| NM-01 (Heinrich) |
58% |
28% |
14% |
| NM-02 (Teague) |
54% |
33% |
13% |
| OH-01 (Driehaus) |
53% |
34% |
13% |
| OH-15 (Kilroy) |
55% |
31% |
14% |
| OH-16 (Boccieri) |
53% |
34% |
13% |
| VA-05 (Perriello) |
55% |
32% |
13% |
| QUESTION: What comes closer to the lesson you think Democrats should learn from the recent Senate election in Massachusetts, where the seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy was won by a Republican: Voters want Democrats to slow down and try to do less, OR Voters are upset about the slow pace of change – and will hold Democrats accountable if they refuse to use their power to fight special interests on behalf of regular people?
|
| | MORE CHANGE | SLOW DOWN | NOT SURE |
| OVERALL |
45% |
29% |
26% |
| DEMOCRATS |
73% | 8% | 19% |
| REPUBLICANS |
19% | 56% | 25% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
44% | 23% | 33%
|
| CO-04 (Markey) |
47% |
28% |
25%
|
| FL-24 (Kosmas) |
39% |
33% |
28%
|
| MI-07 (Schauer) |
46% |
25% |
29% |
| NC-08 (Kissell) |
49% |
23% |
28% |
| NM-01 (Heinrich) |
48% |
25% |
27% |
| NM-02 (Teague) |
43% |
28% |
29% |
| OH-01 (Driehaus) |
44% |
36% |
20% |
| OH-15 (Kilroy) |
46% |
33% |
21% |
| OH-16 (Boccieri) |
45% |
31% |
24% |
| VA-05 (Perriello) |
45% |
29% |
26% |
| QUESTION: Generally speaking do you think Barack Obama and Democrats in Washington, DC are delivering enough on the change Obama promised to bring to America during the campaign?
|
| | NO | YES | NOT SURE |
| OVERALL |
56% |
29% |
15% |
| DEMOCRATS |
43% | 53% | 4%
|
| REPUBLICANS |
68% | 7% | 25%
|
| INDEPENDENTS |
57% | 26% | 17% |
| CO-04 (Markey) |
57% |
27% |
16% |
| FL-24 (Kosmas) |
56% |
27% |
17% |
| MI-07 (Schauer) |
54% |
32% |
14% |
| NC-08 (Kissell) |
52% |
33% |
15% |
| NM-01 (Heinrich) |
53% |
32% |
15% |
| NM-02 (Teague) |
55% |
29% |
16% |
| OH-01 (Driehaus) |
60% |
25% |
15% |
| OH-15 (Kilroy) |
57% |
27% |
16% |
| OH-16 (Boccieri) |
58% |
25% |
17% |
| VA-05 (Perriello) |
56% |
29% |
15% |
| QUESTION: Is the issue of national health care reform very important, somewhat important, or not important when deciding how to vote in congressional elections?
|
| | VERY + SOMEWHAT | VERY | SOMEWHAT | NOT | NOT SURE |
| OVERALL |
73% |
34% |
39% |
15% |
12% |
| DEMOCRATS |
88% | 43% | 45% | 6% | 6% |
| REPUBLICANS |
55% | 25% | 30% | 26% | 19% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
76% | 34% | 42% | 14% | 10% |
| CO-04 (Markey) |
74% |
34% |
40% |
13% |
13%
|
| FL-24 (Kosmas) |
65% |
30% |
35% |
18% |
17%
|
| MI-07 (Schauer) |
76% |
36% |
40% |
13% |
11% |
| NC-08 (Kissell) |
81% |
38% |
43% |
9% |
10% |
| NM-01 (Heinrich) |
77% |
36% |
41% |
10% |
13% |
| NM-02 (Teague) |
72% |
33% |
39% |
14% |
14% |
| OH-01 (Driehaus) |
69% |
31% |
38% |
20% |
11% |
| OH-15 (Kilroy) |
73% |
34% |
39% |
19% |
8% |
| OH-16 (Boccieri) |
69% |
32% |
37% |
20% |
11% |
| VA-05 (Perriello) |
71% |
33% |
38% |
15% |
14% |
| QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose the national government offering everyone the choice of a government administered health insurance plan -- something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get -- that would compete with private health insurance plans?
|
| | FAVOR | OPPOSE | NOT SURE |
| OVERALL |
68% |
21% |
11%
|
| DEMOCRATS |
82% | 9% | 9% |
| REPUBLICANS |
51% | 38% | 11% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
71% | 13% | 16%
|
| CO-04 (Markey) |
68% |
20% |
12%
|
| FL-24 (Kosmas) |
64% |
21% |
15%
|
| MI-07 (Schauer) |
69% |
19% |
12%
|
| NC-08 (Kissell) |
73% |
16% |
11%
|
| NM-01 (Heinrich) |
71% |
17% |
12%
|
| NM-02 (Teague) |
67% |
19% |
14%
|
| OH-01 (Driehaus) |
66% |
26% |
8%
|
| OH-15 (Kilroy) |
69% |
22% |
9%
|
| OH-16 (Boccieri) |
66% |
23% |
11%
|
| VA-05 (Perriello) |
67% |
19% |
14%
|
| QUESTION: Would you be more likely to vote for the re-election of your local Democratic member of Congress if they worked to kill the current health care reform effort in Congress or if they worked to add a public health insurance option that competes head-to-head with private insurance?
|
| | PUBLIC OPTION | KILL | NOT SURE |
| OVERALL |
45% |
20% |
35%
|
| DEMOCRATS |
83% | 9% | 8% |
| REPUBLICANS |
9% | 31% | 60% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
45% | 19% | 36%
|
| CO-04 (Markey) |
45% |
19% |
36%
|
| FL-24 (Kosmas) |
42% |
25% |
33%
|
| MI-07 (Schauer) |
46% |
18% |
36%
|
| NC-08 (Kissell) |
50% |
15% |
35%
|
| NM-01 (Heinrich) |
49% |
15% |
36%
|
| NM-02 (Teague) |
46% |
19% |
35%
|
| OH-01 (Driehaus) |
43% |
26% |
31%
|
| OH-15 (Kilroy) |
45% |
22% |
33%
|
| OH-16 (Boccieri) |
42% |
24% |
34%
|
| VA-05 (Perriello) |
46% |
17% |
37%
|
| QUESTION: Would you be more likely to vote for the re-election of your local Democratic House member if they worked to pass the Senate’s version of health care reform with minimal changes, if any – OR if they worked to add a public health insurance option to the bill that competes head-to-head with private insurance?
|
| | PUBLIC OPTION | SENATE | NOT SURE |
| | |
| OVERALL |
37% |
7% |
56% |
| DEMOCRATS |
75% | 10% | 15% |
| REPUBLICANS |
6% | 4% | 90% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
33% | 6% | 61%
|
| CO-04 (Markey) |
37% |
8% |
55% |
| FL-24 (Kosmas) |
33% |
5% |
62% |
| MI-07 (Schauer) |
39% |
4% |
57% |
| NC-08 (Kissell) |
43% |
6% |
51% |
| NM-01 (Heinrich) |
41% |
7% |
52% |
| NM-02 (Teague) |
38% |
6% |
56% |
| OH-01 (Driehaus) |
33% |
6% |
61% |
| OH-15 (Kilroy) |
37% |
9% |
54% |
| OH-16 (Boccieri) |
35% |
7% |
58% |
| VA-05 (Perriello) |
38% |
9% |
53% |
| QUESTION: If Congress does not pass a public health insurance option as part of health care reform, will that make you more likely or less likely to vote for Democrats in the 2010 general election or would it have no real effect on your vote?
|
| | MORE | LESS | NO EFFECT |
| OVERALL |
10% |
35% |
55%
|
| DEMOCRATS |
5% | 55% | 40% |
| REPUBLICANS |
19% | 6% | 75% |
| INDEPENDENTS |
8% | 43% | 49% |
| CO-04 (Markey) |
11% |
34% |
55%
|
| FL-24 (Kosmas) |
14% |
36% |
50%
|
| MI-07 (Schauer) |
7% |
39% |
54%
|
| NC-08 (Kissell) |
7% |
38% |
55%
|
| NM-01 (Heinrich) |
9% |
35% |
56%
|
| NM-02 (Teague) |
13% |
34% |
53%
|
| OH-01 (Driehaus) |
10% |
33% |
57%
|
| OH-15 (Kilroy) |
11% |
34% |
55%
|
| OH-16 (Boccieri) |
12% |
32% |
56%
|
| VA-05 (Perriello) |
10% |
32% |
58%
|
| QUESTION: If Congress does not pass a public option as part of health care reform, will that make you more likely or less likely to vote in the 2010 general election, or no effect?
|
| | MORE | LESS | NO EFFECT |
| OVERALL |
10% |
33% |
57%
|
| DEMOCRATS |
5% | 52% | 43%
|
| REPUBLICANS |
18% | 11% | 71%
|
| INDEPENDENTS |
7% | 42% | 51% |
| CO-04 (Markey) |
11% |
31% |
58%
|
| FL-24 (Kosmas) |
12% |
32% |
56%
|
| MI-07 (Schauer) |
7% |
36% |
57%
|
| NC-08 (Kissell) |
8% |
37% |
55%
|
| NM-01 (Heinrich) |
9% |
35% |
56%
|
| NM-02 (Teague) |
10% |
33% |
57%
|
| OH-01 (Driehaus) |
10% |
33% |
57%
|
| OH-15 (Kilroy) |
9% |
32% |
59%
|
| OH-16 (Boccieri) |
10% |
30% |
60%
|
| VA-05 (Perriello) |
12% |
31% |
57%
|
| [DEMOCRATS ONLY] QUESTION: If a Democratic member of Congress does not work to pass a public health insurance option that competes head-to-head with private insurance, would you want a more progressive candidate to run against them in a Democratic primary?
|
| | YES | NO | NOT SURE |
| OVERALL |
62% |
18% |
20% |
| CO-04 (Markey) |
63% |
16% |
21%
|
| FL-24 (Kosmas) |
56% |
24% |
20%
|
| MI-07 (Schauer) |
65% |
17% |
18% |
| NC-08 (Kissell) |
68% |
14% |
18% |
| NM-01 (Heinrich) |
64% |
16% |
20% |
| NM-02 (Teague) |
59% |
22% |
19% |
| OH-01 (Driehaus) |
61% |
19% |
20% |
| OH-15 (Kilroy) |
63% |
16% |
21% |
| OH-16 (Boccieri) |
61% |
17% |
22% |
| VA-05 (Perriello) |
61% |
17% |
22% |
